BN thinking small to win big

AUG 15 — With less than 24 hours before nomination at one of the most important by-elections in Malaysian history, both sides are fine-tuning their election strategies.

For Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and Parti Keadilan Rakyat, this is becoming more of a coronation. While not taking things lightly, there is overwhelming confidence in the PKR camp that the by-election will be the beginning of the end for the Barisan Nasional.

Anwar has refused to back down from his threat of toppling the BN Federal Government by Sept 16 and a win in Permatang Pauh is a much-needed impetus in his quest to become the next Prime Minister.

BN knows the stakes are high.

Although it has been careful to downplay its chances the mood among BN party workers is slowly improving. Part of the reason is the announcement of the candidate. Before BN deputy chairman Datuk Seri Najib Abdul Razak revealed the BN's candidate, there was widespread unease among local Umno members who were busy speculating who the candidate would be. Permatang Pauh Umno is notorious for its factions which have been exacerbated by the party elections.

In choosing Datuk Arif Shah Omar Shah, the Assemblyman for Seberang Jaya, it appears the BN leadership has chosen the path of least resistance. Among the local Umno leaders, Arif Shah is the least divisive and is the only one who won in the March general election.

The BN's candidate choice also reveals a little about the strategy that it is likely to employ. While PKR and Anwar will focus on national issues, in particular Anwar's quest to succeed Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi in a month, the BN has decided not to fight fire with fire.

Instead of taking Anwar's bait and debating on his terms, the BN has decided to keep issues localised. Arif Shah has proven himself as an effective Assemblyman, always on the ground solving local problems. That's why he survived the tsunami of the last general election.

This is in stark contrast to Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Ismail, who won three times in absence of her husband based on sentiment rather than performance. She was for the most part an absentee Member of Parliament and was seen as Anwar's proxy while he was in jail and ineligible to contest for public office.

But will the BN's focus on local issues be enough to stop Anwar's coronation?

Even in 2004, at the height of the Abdullah Administration's popularity, PKR still retained Permatang Pauh albeit with a wafer-thin majority. The ground has shifted considerably since then. The BN's popularity is plunging, inflation is being felt even in the rural districts and Anwar is resurgent once again.

The one thing that the BN may have going for them is Anwar himself. As much as he is Permatang Pauh's favourite son, he is also a divisive figure. Wan Azizah may have gotten a lot of sympathy votes because people felt sorry for her predicament. Now that sympathy may not be there.

While many in Permatang Pauh dismiss the recent charge against Anwar for sodomy, some have noticed an arrogance creeping into Pakatan Rakyat, especially with Anwar's continued obsession with securing power by Sept 16. It was arrogance that resulted in the BN's stunning losses in March.

Could it once again be a deciding factor, especially with the BN choosing a simple, soft-spoken, grassroots candidate known to the locals while PKR frame its campaign in national terms that may mean little to the locals in Permatang Pauh? It’s game on.

-TMI