Several possible scenarios

IF Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim has the numbers he claims he has, there is no necessity for him to seek an appointment with Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

According to constitutional law-yers, if Anwar indeed had a majority of members of parliament supporting him, as he has claimed since shortly after the March 8 general election, there are several possible constitutional scenarios.

If Anwar has the majority supporting him, he could table a motion of no confidence in the prime minister in Parliament. If the PM loses the vote, he will have to inform the Yang di-Pertuan Agong that he no longer commands the majority and the government must resign.

Constitutionally, the Yang di-Pertuan Agong could then invite Anwar to form a government if he feels Anwar can command a majority, after which Anwar could then face a confidence vote in the house to show that he indeed has a majority.

Abdullah has another option if the opposition parties can successfully mount a no-confidence motion against him.

He can opt to seek dissolution of Parliament and in a snap parliamentary general election seek a fresh mandate.

The likelihood, of course, is that Anwar cannot coerce or entice enough BN MPs to join him and, hence, that is why he has proposed many dates for forming the government -- none of which have materialised.

It is extremely unlikely, some lawyers say, that he has the numbers because if he did, then he could just call a gathering of all the defectors with signed pledges, parade them before the press, and practically bring down the government as he did in 1994 in Sabah after the Parti Bersatu Sabah democratically won the elections.

At that time, Anwar was deputy prime minister and was heading the election campaign for BN in Sabah.

-NST