The problem with Mohamed Sabu

When Pas spiritual chief Datuk Nik Aziz Nik Mat jumped the gun and announced last week that Mohamed Sabu alias Mat Sabu was his choice as candidate for the Jan 17 Kuala Terengganu by-election, he was trying to use his stature to stampede the party into NOT choosing a candidate from the conservative Ulama group led by president Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang.

Nik Aziz is now alligned to the party's Erdogan faction, who has thrown itsr lot behind Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, the opposition leader who has close ties with the Turkish leader.

And Mohamed, considered a moderate, is more acceptable to the Erdogan faction.

Here in lies the dilemma before Pas — pick Mohamed, the popular, seasoned campaigner but an "outsider" in the state and face a possible defeat or place the bet on a local boy but a respected Ulama and still face defeat.

It is a Catch-22 situation for the Pas leadership.

Supporters of Hadi are saying a veteran Pas leader like Terengganu Pas commissioner Datuk Mustafa Ali or his deputy Datuk Wan Abdul Muttalib Embong, both locals, stand a better chance against an Umno/BN candidate.

DAP advisor Lim Kit Siang has also spoken up for Mohamed, saying he was a good candidate and that the party would work hard to win over the Chinese voters, who form 11 per cent of the electorate of about 80,000.

Lim's preference for Mohamed is because the latter is a moderate, and has worked with DAP and human rights NGOs like Suaram and BERSIH over numerous issues ranging from urban squatters to human rights abuses.

Mohamed's supporters — both in Pas and in the opposition ranks — believe that if he is selected it would be easier to woo the crucial Chinese voters who, in the event Malay votes are split equally between Pas and Umno, would be the kingmakers.

It is also easier for the DAP to campaign for Mohamed and more difficult to back Mustafa or Wan Muttalib, who are hardliners and leading conservative voices in Pas.

Both are also lesser known to the Chinese community compared with Mohamed.

These are considerations the Pas leadership is weighing.

The dilemma is compounded by the fact that the voting trend in Kuala Terengganu since the 1986 general election shows that an "outsider" gets fewer votes compared to a local.

Pas leaders estimate that about 2,000 votes will stray from Pas if an outside candidate like Mohamed, who is from Penang, is fielded as the candidate.

As evidence they point to the fact that although the majority of voters voted opposition in the state seats in the Kuala Terengganu constituency in the March 2008 election, the votes for Mohamed in the parliamentary election saw a 2,000 vote shortfall.

This means the 2,000 voted for Pas but not for Mohamed.

"We blame these discrepancies on the 'local-outsider' factor," said a top Pas leader requesting anonymity. "It sounds stupid as we are all Malaysians but it is a known fact that local candidates have an edge over non-locals."

There are larger issues besides the "local versus outsider" issue. Much of this has to do with the Hadi and his vision of the party, Islam and Malay society.

Terengganu is Hadi's home state and he wants to play the key role in the by-election battle and play it his way, Pas insiders said.

"He wants to lead and win and does not want others overshadowing his lead," insiders said referring to both Anwar and Lim as possible individuals who could take the limelight away.

Hadi also feels, they said, that the Malays are finally turning to Islam and to Pas for leadership and direction in the face of uncertainties in Malay society since the March 8 general election.

"He sees opportunity here for Pas and for Islam to lead the way for the Malays at a troubled time... not any other idealogy," they said.

Malay society, they said, has been roiled by Umno's constant harping on the loss of Malay supremacy and attacks on Anwar as a traitor. "All these and other issues have confused and raised fears among the Malays."

"Even the Malay Rulers are re-exerting themselves… Pas leaders believe the conditions are now right for Malays to return to Islam and they want Pas to play the ultimate role as protector and guide for the future," they said.

In this context, supporters of Hadi say, the by-election is crucial for them to show that Islam and Pas is the way forward for the Malays.