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Wednesday, September 17, 2008

If Anwar takes over...

KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 17 - It's all systems go for D-Day.

That is the declaration opposition leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim made at a Pakatan Rakyat rally two nights ago.

He claimed his coalition -has the numbers- to gain control of Parliament yesterday - a date he had declared would be the deadline for his government takeover bid.

He said he has submitted a letter to Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi yesterday seeking a meeting for a smooth transition of power.

-A peaceful transition is paramount,- he told Malaysiakini.

For several months, Anwar has signalled Sept 16 as the day he would get 30 MPs to defect to his side.

But while Anwar appeared to be brimming with confidence in front of the crowds chanting -Reformasi-, things weren't so sure.

Earlier on Monday, he conceded to the Asian Wall Street Journal that his personal target is -within September-.

Another date ~ Sept 20 - was even bandied around.

That is the date Anwar was arrested 10 years ago, after falling out with the then-Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

The Malaysian Insider calls Sept 16 -the beginning of a transformation- for Anwar.



Parti Keadilan Rakyat strategist Saifuddin Nasution insisted that -we never talked about defections, merely support-.



The party's official line on it is that Sept 16 will kick-start a change of government, with only technical matters to be resolved after.



But whether he actually gains power or not, analysts, politicians and the man-in-the-street feel there will be repercussions.



Malaysian political analyst Gavin Khoo feels it is not a matter of if, but when.



He said: -Sept 16 is just symbolic. The desire to change is far more important than just meeting the deadline.-



Even opposition veteran Lim Kit Siang felt that change itself is a different matter.



He told The Star: -If you compare now to six months ago, around 70 to 80 per cent of the people are now saying it is possible to change.-



Should an Anwar-led government be in power, analysts like Mohd Nawab Mohd Osman, from the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, do not expect major overhauls.



Just tweaks to the system such as the NEP - the 1971 affirmative action plan that favours the Malays.



After all, Mohd Nawab reasons that Anwar's formative years were in Umno.



Even economics reforms such as review of rising costs, which many Malaysians cite as one of the issues for their swing against the Barisan Nasional, may only have an impact on the public next year, notes ex-DAP MP James Wong.



Wong believes that if Anwar's takeover succeeds, -there will be politicking and confusion on society and within Umno-.



Echoing this sentiment, Khoo even went as far as to say that he believes that Umno -can expect a major exodus-.



If that happens, Umno can go either way, notes Dr Ooi Kee Beng of the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (Iseas).



Umno would either -accept their loss or encourage violence- to undermine the new government.



Ooi also expects the new government to be a lot more mulitracial in tone.



He said: -It will have to be Malay-led so that protests from Umno people will be quietened... NEP thinking will change, going from Malay-centric to Malaysian-centric, in words if not in action, to start with.-



Khoo added that the only way for Umno to recover is for it to work with the good leaders within its ranks and be truly multiracial in its approach.



Analysts also say they expect Umno and its BN counterparts to be doing a lot of rethinking and restrategising.



BN, said Ooi, will never be able to -regain its strength or dominance and will have to reorganise itself-.



Mohd Nawab expects Abdullah's position to continue to remain fragile, with him perceived as ineffectual leader.



He could possibly be booted out sooner than the 2010 target of handing over power to his deputy, Datuk Najib Abdul Razak.



But are voters actually prepared for an Anwar government?



Ooi said: -When they voted, they wished to teach Barisan Nasional a lesson. But now, once their revolt had been realised, I think they wish to go all the way.-



Yet, that may not happen, despite what Anwar says.



His takeover claims were immediately panned by Abdullah and other Barisan Nasional leaders, reported The Star.



Abdullah called the opposition's plans -a nuisance- and -preposterous-.



Some BN MPs have also voiced out that merely forming a government by getting MPs to defect is immoral and undemocratic.



Datuk Seri Pairin Kitingan told Bernama that toppling the government this way is denying the people's majority decision and suggested a law against party-hopping.



Even DAP chairman Karpal Singh called defections a betrayal of voters' trust.



Added Malaysian teacher Mohd Izran Mohd Al-Amin, 23: -It's very obvious that old choices of systems of governance definitely has to change, but not this way (through defections).-



Should Anwar's takeover eventually fail, Mohd Nawab believes it will really hurt PKR's confidence.



He said: -I think that many within the PKR are not entirely convinced that Anwar can galvanise enough BN MPs to defect.



-As such, the likeliest result of a failure is business as usual in PKR.

-TMI

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