Clock is ticking for Anwar and Umno

SEPT 28 - For the first time in many decades, Umno members are now free to nominate anyone they want for the party presidency. There is so far neither a no-contest rule nor a retain-the-incumbent directive this time around.

With Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi exiting the political stage – it doesn't matter whether it's in March next year or anytime after the Hari Raya celebration – his deputy Datuk Seri Najib Razak is set to take over.

To his detractors, Najib's inaction since the general election debacle has proven that he's too safe to bring about the expected change in the party – something to make Umno respectable again, not only for the Malays but also Malaysians at large.

The anti-Abdullah action within Umno had hoped that Najib would oust his boss to pave the way for change. But nothing happened until Friday.

For those who support Najib, they will have started daydreaming about the power and perks that come along with the Umno presidency. For them, it is inevitable that Najib will become the Umno president by March.

The first hurdle for him is to get the nominations, and this time, he has a rival in Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah.

Along with the Kelantan prince, there are strong voices of dissent in the party in wanting to abolish the quota system introduced by former leader Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad almost two decades ago.

The quota system makes it difficult for contenders at the top to get the large number of nominations required. This means the top incumbent is assured of nominations, and he too can ensure his number two get the support by indicating his choice.

Some leaders and members are demanding that the party get rid of the system to go back to the basic minimum of two nominations for every post contested. This means no one will know for sure who will be the winner as there will be quite a number of candidates.

At the moment, Abdullah and Najib are silent on the matter. Another hurdle for any challenger is money politics.

It is going to be a tough fight for Tengku Razaleigh. Unless he has the support of the revered Dr Mahathir who still commands a strong influence among members. And the possibility of getting the senior number three Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin as his running mate.

These factors will at least help Tengku Razaleigh's almost impossible challenge against Najib who has also been in the government, and who has managed to fortify his position, for more than 20 years.

At the moment, factors that can go against the Kelantan prince are his age and the fact that he holds no position in the party or in the government.

Beyond the reach of the news media radar, Umno division leaders as well as their contenders have been busy campaigning for the past few months. By next week, they will intensify further efforts to go in for the kill.

Contrary to popular belief, Umno members are still unfazed by opposition leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim. They are more concerned with the survival of their party to the extent that most of them neglect their BN partners.

But if Anwar can pull off a surprise before the Umno divisional meetings end in November – like persuading BN MPs to jump to his side - it's not just game over for Abdullah and Najib, it will also mean Umno will become the federal opposition party.

If not, it's game over for Anwar; and a new Umno will emerge by March next year.

-TMI