Anwar and Arif: Two very different campaigns

Hard at work the Permatang Pauh Umno campaign headquarters.

SEBERANG JAYA, Aug 19 — The crowds who throng Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s nightly ceramahs number in the thousands, but Datuk Arif Shah Omar Shah’s ceramahs only muster a few hundred — most of them party workers.

By way of explaining the poor turnout, Barisan Nasional loyalists say they prefer house-to-house campaigning, claiming that big rallies do not necessarily translate into votes.

The problem is this is the same answer BN candidates gave during the March 8 general election campaign. And back then, former MP Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Ismail, who was contesting in Permatang Pauh, did not hold nightly rallies like her husband is doing now. And she ended up winning with a 13,000-plus majority.

Even Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi admitted the BN campaign machinery had yet to kick into high gear since nomination day on Saturday.

So why the lacklustre campaign for the BN’s Arif Shah?

No one on the BN side wants to admit anything, merely arguing that there’s still a week to go before polling.

Yet Umno campaigners are confident that the sentiment on the ground will be in the BN’s favour soon; even better than it was during the recent general election.

“In the last general election we couldn’t even get to into some voters’ houses but now we can. At our mini rallies, there are more people than before,” said Permatang Pauh Umno division secretary Ahmad Shahar Shuib.

When met at the party’s campaign headquarters near Bukit Mertajam yesterday, he was sorting out campaign materials, going through the electoral roll and co-ordinating the campaign schedule.

BN and Umno flags criss-cross the road outside the Permatang Pauh Umno campaign headquarters.

Ahmad Shahar, however, believes that it is too early to judge how the people are going to vote on Aug 26.

“I don’t want to make any assessment for now, let us concentrate on convincing the people first. Our campaigners are very enthusiastic,” he added.

“If we hold big rallies, there will be a lot of supporters but not necessarily local voters,” he added.

When Arif Shah walked into a restaurant in Sunway City here on Sunday evening, he was greeted by diners who rushed to shake his hand. He’s popular in his urban Seberang Jaya state constituency.

But he is having a tough time in the more rural state constituencies of Penanti and Permatang Pauh where Anwar and his wife Wan Azizah are very popular.

Yet Arif Shah is confident. “On nomination day, my chance of winning was 60-40 but after two days, the odds are 55:45, still in favour of Anwar but I can sense the change in voters’ sentiments.”

Hardcore Umno supporters believe Anwar can never bring down the petrol price, even though the PM is planning to do the same thing early next month. They tend to repeat statements made by earlier by either the PM or his deputy Datuk Seri Najib Razak.

“I don’t believe that he can reduce the petrol price,” said housewife Rahmah Mohamed, 56 of Kampung Sungai Semambu, who added that the increase in oil price was a global trend. “Anwar promises to be the prime minister, it shows that the campaign is about him.”

For Habibah Ismail, 53, of Kubang Semang, she believes the country would be in turmoil if Anwar becomes prime minister although she couldn’t really say why.

While Umno-BN ceramahs are fewer in number, many supporters are banking on the mainstream media, particularly the major TV stations, to highlight the campaign especially those attended by Najib and other senior ministers campaigning for Arif Shah.

Perhaps that’s the reason why the workers at the Permatang Pauh Umno division office were so laidback when approached yesterday. They appeared confused when asked about the daily campaign schedule and while some were seen doing some serious work, others were either reading the newspapers or enjoying snacks served at the centre.

And while Arif Shah himself does not touch on the sodomy allegation against Anwar, almost all the BN leaders including Najib have been highlighting the issue in their nightly ceramahs in the constituency.

A flash flood yesterday caused a number of programmes by both candidates to be cancelled, and they took the advantage to meet affected local residents.

Today Anwar will launch a special Merdeka campaign, adding yet another dimension to his already popular ceramahs and walkabouts around the constituency.

-TMI