Should BN yield by-election to Anwar?

KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 4 — De facto opposition leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim will soon get his day at the polls.

On July 31 his wife Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Ismail vacated the parliamentary seat of Permatang Pauh in Penang, which she had won by over 13,000 votes, to afford him a parliamentary comeback bid.

Already, the coming by-election is being billed as the “mother of all by-elections”.

The ruling Barisan Nasional coalition has not named its candidate but has conceded that defeating the former deputy prime minister in his stronghold will be a very long shot. Permatang Pauh is the safest seat for the Penang-born Anwar who held it for more than a decade prior to the 1998 sodomy and corruption charges.

A survey by an opinion research firm has found that more than half of Malaysians are dissatisfied with governance by the BN at the national level.

Of the 1,030 people randomly polled by the Merdeka Centre in the first half of July, only 44 per cent said that they were very satisfied or somewhat satisfied with the BN.

The dominant partner in the ruling coalition, Umno, was only popular with one in three. Only 36 per cent, gave them the thumbs up as a political party “which reflects the aspirations and needs of the people”.

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's popularity has also dropped to a new low. More than half of the respondents said they are dissatisfied with his performance. Only 42 per cent are very satisfied or somewhat satisfied with the way he is leading the country.

The findings of the survey, which has a 3 per cent margin of error, are perhaps all the more significant, given the coming by-election.

More significantly, the survey also found that the public is doubtful about the sexual misconduct claims against Anwar, with only 11 per cent of Malays and Chinese, and 13 per cent of Indians, believing the current sodomy claims.

To recap, his former aide Saiful Bukhari Azlan had lodged a police report in June claiming Anwar had sodomised him. The police recently completed their investigations, and the decision to prosecute now lies with the Attorney-General's office.

Unless the police can come up with stronger evidence than they have to this point, expect Anwar to use his considerable oratorical skills during by-election campaigning to further ratchet up sympathy and reinforce his point that the allegations are a political conspiracy to keep him from getting into Parliament and effecting a crossover from disaffected BN lawmakers so that his coalition Pakatan Rakyat can take over at the federal level.

Even if the authorities decide to charge or arrest him in the run-up to the by-election, which must be held within the next 60 days, the BN is unlikely to come up smelling of roses.

The survey also found a troubling extent of mistrust and disenchantment against the core institutions in the country. Less than a third of respondents said that they were confident that the police, attorney-general or judiciary “would be fair and independent in their handling of the (Anwar) case”.

Since Anwar is a shoo-in candidate for the seat, some have suggested that the BN should save their resources and let him have the seat uncontested.

Although unorthodox, there is merit in the suggestion. The inevitable muckraking and character assassination at the stumps would only add to the political tedium already felt by the people.

The money, resources and energy would be far better spent accelerating reforms to the police, judiciary and anti-corruption agency, as Abdullah has promised to do before stepping down in mid 2010.

At the same time Abdullah must realise the economy demands greater attention. Because of the economic uncertainties and political distractions, it continues to drift downwards adding to the increasing gloom.

-TMI